[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231956
SWODY1
SPC AC 231954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
JVL 10 NNW OSH 20 NE AUW 35 SW IWD 50 NNW IWD 45 SW CMX 20 ENE GRB
40 SSE MTW 10 NE MKE 15 NE JVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLE 25 NE ZZV
25 S CRW 45 SSW TYS 30 E ANB 30 ENE MCB 35 SE HUM ...CONT... 25 S
CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20
NW TPL 40 WSW TXK 15 SSE UNO 45 SSW BLV 20 E BRL 25 NNE MSN CWA 65
NNE EAU 70 SSW DLH 30 ENE BRD INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU
55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW
SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI / ERN WI...

...WI WRN UPPER MI...
NARROW / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SERN WI ATTM AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE WARM FRONT.  BROKEN
/ ARCING LINE OF ROTATING / LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ERN WI...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD EXISTS.  COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
/ DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO REGION OF MORE MARGINAL /
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  

...IL SWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...
BROADER WARM SECTOR EXISTS SWD ACROSS IL / IN AND INTO THE LOWER OH
/ TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS.  DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70...WEAK LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK / DISORGANIZED
DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.

EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER / LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AS LIMITED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THREAT TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.