[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231551
SWODY1
SPC AC 231549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
MMO 25 N LSE 40 E BRD 15 ENE HIB 35 NNE RHI 10 SSW MTW 10 SSE CGX 35
SW MMO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE
...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20 NW TPL 45 NW
TYR 20 N HRO 35 ENE VIH 25 E UIN 30 S DBQ 45 SSW LSE 35 NNW RST 40
SW STC 55 E FAR 20 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 NNW JHW 35 NE EKN 30 SSE
ROA 25 ESE CLT 40 ESE AHN 30 SSW AUO 35 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU
55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW
SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
AND WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WHILE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS
THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS.  NARROW AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES
WERE SAMPLED SOUNDING AT MSP THIS MORNING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LOW
OVERSPREADS NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG AS AFTERNOON HEATING
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MOIST CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL WI THROUGH 21Z. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER...AND WEST OF WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY
NNEWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI AND NERN WI.  SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS...SHOULD INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...WITH
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.


...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MORE LIMITED SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...DESPITE
PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 60-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. 
THOUGH POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AND JUST
AHEAD OF ACTIVITY SPREADING STEADILY EWD...AND ALSO AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...EXPECT ANY ENSUING
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES. 
WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.