[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230111
SWODY1
SPC AC 230109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
LWD 50 W LWD 15 SE OLU 55 SSE 9V9 25 NNW HON 65 SSW FAR 30 N AXN MSP
25 SE ALO 15 ENE LWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
P07 30 E BWD 15 N TPL 30 SSE TPL 65 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNW ANJ 25 SSE
AZO 35 SW SDF 25 E TUP 55 NNE HEZ 50 WSW POE 30 NNW VCT LRD
...CONT... 25 SE P07 30 WNW SEP 15 SSE ADM TUL 15 SE EMP 30 SSW MHK
RSL 25 W HLC 25 WSW IML 40 ESE AIA VTN 10 WSW ABR 20 NNE FAR 45 WNW
INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB...SD INTO
IA AND MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX...

...NE NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SW MN...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN SD SWWD
THROUGH E CNTRL NEB WITH A DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME
ERN NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL IA AND
INTO NE MO. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING EWD INTO ERN
NEB...ERN SD...AND A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT JUST N OF SURFACE LOW IN SE SD. HOWEVER...THESE CELLS
ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHER LOW TOPPED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER E
CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES
WITH THE DRYLINE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER EXTREME ERN NEB. STRONG
LINEAR FORCING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.


...S TX...

ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ON SRN END OF CONVEYOR BELT OVER SW TX WHERE DEEP
SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY PERSISTS.


...MID MS VALLEY AREA...

STORMS PERSIST ALONG ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM SW TX NEWD THROUGH MO AND WRN IL. SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY. MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

..DIAL.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.