[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230543
SWODY1
SPC AC 230542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
BLV 20 W MMO 35 NNW MSN 50 NE EAU 20 SSW CMX 75 W ANJ 20 NE TVC 20
NW LAN 30 ESE FWA 20 SSE SDF 30 NE BNA 25 NNE MSL 40 WSW CBM 15 SSE
HEZ 35 WSW MLU 45 NW ELD 20 WNW ARG 30 NE BLV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 30 E NIR
25 S ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 30 SSE ELP 30 WNW GDP 10 ESE INK 50
SSE BGS 25 ESE ABI 10 E FTW 25 W FSM 30 SSE SGF 10 ESE JEF 30 SSW
BRL 20 SE CID 55 NNE ALO 35 NNW RST 30 WSW MSP 45 E BKX 20 W BKX 50
NE ABR 10 ENE GFK 20 WNW RRT ...CONT... 55 NNW ERI 10 WNW HLG BKW 35
WNW HKY 25 SSW AHN 35 N PNS 35 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 25 WNW GTF
35 SSE 3HT 35 NNW JAC 30 SW SUN 60 SSW BOI 50 NE 4LW 35 N MFR 20 NNW
OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
THROUGH OH VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
SATURDAY. NRN MOST VORT MAX WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN END VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS AND
UPPER OH VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IL
AND NW AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT.

...MIDDLE MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEYS SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...LOW
LEVEL SELY TRAJECTORIES WILL REMAIN FROM MODIFIED CP AIR. THE
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...MEAGER INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND RESULTING
SEVERE THREAT.

BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN NARROW CORRIDOR
IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND E OF COLD FRONT WHERE ADVANCING
DRYSLOT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SURFACE HEATING ONCE LOW CLOUDS
MIX OUT. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP GIVEN EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN DRY SLOT
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY PORTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
INITIATION MAY BE FROM NRN IL THROUGH WI WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY EXTEND TROUGH A DEEPER LAYER. FARTHER S...THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PORTION OF TN VALLEY...

STORMS ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE
ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO SERN TX AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING PRECIPITATION
AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN DRY SLOT REGION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE CONVEYOR BELT.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP...EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT OVERALL INITIATION POTENTIAL IN THIS
AREA.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.