[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
BIE 35 SW EAR 25 WNW BBW 20 W 9V9 55 WNW AXN 50 S DLH MSN 30 NNW SPI
10 N MEM 40 N MLU 45 WSW HDO 50 SW SJT 35 E ICT 25 SE BIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF ROW 20 S
CVS 25 NNE PVW 15 NNE CDS 50 SSW P28 20 WSW CNK HLC 25 SSE GLD 15 SE
LIC 45 SE CYS 45 NNE LAR 45 NE DGW 35 NNW CDR 55 NNW MHN 45 NNE ABR
30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 75 NE MQT 15 SW LEX 20 S HSV 30 N JAN 30 SE
MLU 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO / UPPER MS
VALLEY SWD / SSWWD INTO TX...

...MIDDLE MO / UPPER MS VALLEYS SSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE -- NOW INDICATED ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB -- WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MN WITH TIME.  WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM TX / LA / MS NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY..AND CONTINUES ADVECTING SLOWLY NWD IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- W OF MOIST
AXIS AND BEHIND BAND OF CLOUDS / CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
CONVEYOR / TROPICAL PLUME.  AS A RESULT...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

NONETHELESS...WITH COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EWD / SEWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE / INTENSIFY WITHIN ZONE FROM
THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS ERN KS / ERN OK / WRN MO / WRN AR
AND THEN SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX.  ALTHOUGH AREAS
OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ATTM...EXPECT TWO MORE ACTIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO INCLUDE SERN SD
/ ERN NEB / IA / SRN MN AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN TX ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND.

DESPITE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BROAD 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR / INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME. 
THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A VERY
LARGE AREA OF FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL
BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...DELAYED INITIATION OF STORMS
THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT LINEAR ORGANIZATION MAY PREDOMINATE WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS MAY THEREFORE BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH
MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS.

CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING
EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OZARKS / ARKLATEX /
TX HILL COUNTRY.

..GOSS.. 10/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.