[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221629
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
BIE 30 WSW EAR 35 S ANW 25 NW 9V9 45 WNW AXN 50 SSW DLH MSN ALN 30
SE JBR 40 E ELD 60 WNW COT 50 ENE P07 35 E ICT 20 S BIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 SW PVW
50 SSW P28 10 NE RSL HLC 45 SSW GLD 10 WSW RTN 40 ENE 4SL DRO 25 E
GJT 30 NE CAG 50 NNW DGW GFK 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 WNW ANJ 20 N
SDF 30 SSE MSL 45 NNW GPT 10 NE ESF 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB/S-CENTRAL SD THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM NOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND
LIKELY SHIFT NWD INTO FAR SERN SD/SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH
DRY LINE ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONG MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM
SERN SD INTO ERN NEB.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SERN MN
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL PLACE REGION NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD.  HOWEVER...12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSPECT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG CAPPING AND ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.  IN FACT...ETA CONTINUES TO FORECAST LITTLE OR NO
QPF TODAY OVER THIS REGION.  THIS ASPECT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN
UPGRADING TO A MODERATE...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR WARM FRONT BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AIDS IN OVERCOMING CAP.  SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS REMAIN LINEAR ALONG COLD
FRONT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND BECOMES MORE CAPPED.

FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL NEB...STRONG CONVERGENCE AND A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP SUGGESTING A SHALLOW LINE OF
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES ESEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE HEATING ABATES THIS EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE EWD PUSH TO DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS TX 
TODAY...WITH 12Z ETA KEEPING H85 WIND SHIFT ALONG A CENTRAL AR TO
BIG BEND REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...RICH
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO CENTRAL TX
WITH LARGE AREA OF MID 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A H85 DEW POINT
NEAR 18C OBSERVED AT DRT THIS MORNING. ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX AND LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS ERN OK...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED INTO THE OZARK REGION/MO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PLUME OF
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER TX
INTO SERN OK AND POSSIBLY AR WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND ALONG WRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING NOW IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL/ERN TX.  THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
PRIMARY THREAT...SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/RH IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES
ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.