[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 45 E MCB 40
WNW MEI 20 SW TCL 15 NNE MGM 25 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 35 S MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 N LAS
20 ENE PUC ASE 45 NNE SAF 25 SW 4CR 20 W ROW 45 NNW HOB 35 W HUT 25
NE OMA 30 WNW MKT 25 WNW EAU 40 ESE VOK 20 WSW PIA 10 NNW TBN 20 N
DUA 35 SE DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN TX AND OK THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO...

SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
NWD DESTABILIZATION TONIGHT THROUGH OK...KS AND MO WITH MUCAPE
GENERALLY FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION AS WELL AS A GENERAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY DELAY
INITIATION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT 2-6 KM SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY
FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.