[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211959
SWODY1
SPC AC 211957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 15 ENE MCB
25 SSW GWO 20 NW CBM 25 ESE BHM 25 WNW TLH 35 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35
NNE HOB 25 E AMA 35 S DDC 35 WSW BIE 10 SSE HON 50 SSW AXN 60 SSE
DLH 50 NE EAU 10 SW LNR MLI 10 S UIN SGF 25 E MKO 20 SSW ADM 20 SW
BWD 20 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 30 SSE DAG 25 SSW
DRA 35 SW P38 40 NNW 4HV 20 WNW EGE 35 SE ASE 30 ENE ALS 35 NNW LVS
20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NEWD INTO WRN OK...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WRN TROUGH.  A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE...WHICH IS NOW
SHARPENING FROM ROUGHLY CDS TO MAF.  

WITH ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION
LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.  MEANWHILE...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING EWD
INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...STORM INTENSITY MAY LIKEWISE
INCREASE SOMEWHAT.  THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE
OF STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...S CENTRAL AZ...
VORT MAX WITHIN BASE OF LARGE MID-LEVEL WRN U.S. TROUGH REMAINS JUST
OFF THE SRN CA / NRN BAJA COAST ATTM...WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN AZ NWD INTO PARTS
OF NV AND UT.  

JUST AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION / CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ AND
NWD INTO CENTRAL AZ...DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT INTO THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL COOLING IS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER W...SOME MINIMAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL SUPPORT
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
PERHAPS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY APPRECIABLE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
GIVEN GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY.  NONETHELESS...IF A FEW STORMS
COULD ORGANIZE -- EVEN BRIEFLY...STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS
THAT DAMAGING WINDS COULD EASILY DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 5% WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL / S CENTRAL AZ FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND EWD MOVEMENT OF
UPPER SYSTEM MITIGATES ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.