[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220603
SWODY1
SPC AC 220601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
ICT 35 ENE OLU 30 ESE 9V9 55 WNW AXN 20 NNW DLH 10 NW EAU 25 S DBQ
POF 20 SE TXK 35 W AUS 30 W JCT 30 SSE BGS 35 SSW LTS 30 E ICT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ 45 N EVV 40
E MEM 35 ENE MEI 25 SSW CEW ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 10 NE ESF 20 WNW
LFK 50 SE SAT 10 SSE LRD ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 25 WNW MAF 20 NNE CDS
25 ENE P28 25 SE CNK 30 WSW BIE 30 SSW HSI 25 WNW HLC 40 WSW GLD 25
NNE LHX 45 SSW PUB 50 S GUC 20 NW MTJ 45 W CAG 25 NW RWL 40 SE 81V
20 WNW JMS 35 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 35 E ORL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SWRN MN...IA AND INTO IL WITH A
DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME ERN NEB...ERN KS...CNTRL OK
AND WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO MN AND
WI...WHILE THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE OVER
ERN NEB AND CONTINUES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS AND E CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...


RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD ALONG STRONG
SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH
7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
ACCOMPANY UPPER JET NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON . THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT FROM THE SW.
AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS
OF EXTREME ERN NEB...SERN SD INTO WRN IA AND SWRN MN. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR TRIPLE POINT MAY PROMOTE STORM INITIATION IN THIS
REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS
THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NW TX NEWD
THROUGH OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MOISTENING...DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF W TX INTO
WRN AND CNTRL OK. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY
AND LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX...ERN OK INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY AND MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY
INTERCEPT STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/BANACOS.. 10/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.