[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211603
SWODY1
SPC AC 211601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 SW HEZ
10 NE GLH 25 SE UOX 20 N BHM 40 NW MCN 25 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35
N HOB 10 SSE AMA 25 E LBL 20 E GRI BKX 35 NNE ATY 45 NE STC 40 NNW
VOK 20 SSW RFD 35 NNW PIA 10 S UIN 25 ENE FYV 45 SE FSM 25 NNE SHV
45 ENE CLL 10 WSW AUS 20 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LGB 30 SSE DAG
15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW
LVS 20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT DROPPED SEWD OFF CA COAST OVERNIGHT NOW
TURNING EWD AND WILL CROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA INTO AZ BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES
RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER SRN PLAINS IS SPREADING NWD AS THE LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES.  BY THIS EVENING DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING
THRU THE 60S AS FAR N AS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH LOW 70S INTO NWRN TX AND
OK.  WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM SPREADING EWD ACROSS
PLAINS TONIGHT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE PERIOD.

THE STRONG RIDGE/SUBSIDING AIR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE SWRN U.S. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING INITIALLY NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WRN TX 
WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING TO 40-50 KT AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NWD THRU THE PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND SPREAD NEWD THRU WRN OK TO KS.  A FEW ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED.

...AZ...
VERY IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD
ACROSS WRN AZ...WITH LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/ERN
AZ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TODAY WITH AND BEHIND LEADING EDGE
OF PCPN BAND AND WITH THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.