[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200457
SWODY1
SPC AC 200456

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE
SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20
W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR
40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS
15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK
CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE
ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SRN AR EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL MS AND SRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A WEAK CAPPING SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE
VERY ISOLATED. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE ALONG OLD
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. A MARGINAL
HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.