[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200044
SWODY1
SPC AC 200042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
PNS 20 NNW MOB 40 SW LUL 35 NNE MCB 30 SW JAN 20 NW JAN 40 N JAN 50
NNW MEI 20 ESE MGM 40 NNE DHN 25 NNE MAI 15 SE MAI 15 NE PFN 15 NNW
PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SNY 20 SW BFF 55
E DGW 30 WSW RAP 45 NE RAP 35 W PIR 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW ANW 20 NNW LBF
30 E SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 55 ESE OLM 20 E
DLS 30 WSW RDM 45 NNE LMT 65 E 4LW 70 W OWY 30 SE BYI 45 SE MLD 50 W
VEL U28 50 WNW 4HV 45 SSW U31 60 NNW BIH FAT 10 NW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GLS 45 SE LFK 20
ESE ELD CGI 25 SSW HUF 30 WNW DAY 20 SE HLG 30 ESE DOV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL ERN MS
AND SRN AL...

...SE MS/SRN AL...
A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM CNTRL MS
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES
AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS THIS EVENING.

...WRN KY AND NRN KY/SW TN...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WRN/NRN KY AND
SW TN. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING
NEWD FROM WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES NWD FROM
TN AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KT. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.