[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE
SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20
W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR
40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS
15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK
CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE
ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF STATES...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...THEN SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH.  LARGE
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED
REGIONS OF ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF SOME CONCERN IS THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS RETURNED
TO THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AOA 70F.  THIS
AIRMASS WILL NEED LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.  LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION FROM AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE APPEARS TO REFLECT A
ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY AID INITIATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROVE ACCURATE FOR THIS
REGION...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN STRONGLY
VEERED FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.  MARGINAL DEEP
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SWWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING ZONE OF WAA OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT REMAIN THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF DOMINANT SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.