[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191943
SWODY1
SPC AC 191942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
CEW 40 WNW MOB 25 N HEZ 35 ENE ELD 55 WSW MEM 30 SW DYR 40 SW PAH 15
SSE PAH 25 SW HOP 35 NE HSV 25 NE CSG MCN 20 NW MGR 20 SE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW GLD 45 ESE FCL
45 W BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 25 SE LBF 35 WNW
GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 65 ENE
BNO SUN IDA RKS GJT CNY 65 W P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL
35 S AUS 40 SSE JCT 35 ENE SJT 15 NW FTW 45 SE PRX HOT CGI SLO LAF
FWA MFD LBE HGR ILG ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
CONUS...

...SERN CONUS...
STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
INTO GA / THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING
SWD ACROSS ERN AL / CENTRAL GA...WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON / EVENING AS 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
AREA.

GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MS
ESEWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN AL...WITHIN AREAS COVERED BY ONGOING
TORNADO WATCHES.  BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...YIELDING MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500
J/KG.  DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG /
WEAKLY-VEERING WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS --
INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES -- WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS
EVENING.  

...NRN CA...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN CA AS WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO INHIBIT HEATING.  THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE BAY AREA INTO THE SACRAMENTO / NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEYS GIVEN DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY JUST OFF THE CA COAST.

WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION
POSSIBLE...STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS
THIS AREA WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.