[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191549
SWODY1
SPC AC 191547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
CEW 35 S LUL 30 SW MLU 25 WNW ELD 20 ESE LIT 30 SW JBR 20 SSE CGI 10
E PAH 40 WSW HOP 40 N MSL 15 S HSV 30 WSW ATL 25 W MCN 25 WNW MGR 20
ESE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 45 WSW SNY 45 W
BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 ANW IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 90 SSE
BNO 45 SW OWY OWY 50 NW TWF SUN IDA RKS 50 E VEL GJT CNY MLF 65 W
P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL
45 SSE SAT HDO JCT BWD FTW PRX HOT ARG CGI MDH SLO MTO LAF FWA FDY
MFD PIT LBE HGR ILG ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SWD ALONG PAC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OR/NRN CA COAST. DOWNSTREAM THERE IS A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS GULF COAST
STATES.  MID/UPPER SPEED MAX SRN PLAINS THIS AM WILL TRACK EWD
ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD GULF
STATES TO THE S OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

...LWR MS VALLEY AND GULF STATES...
APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE GULF STATES THRU THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE NOW VERY RICH
GULF AIR MASS ONSHORE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG SPREADING EWD
ACROSS AL INTO SWRN GA...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM MS RIVER TO WRN GA.  SFC-1KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 20KTS
NEAR GULF COAST TO GREATER THAN 30KTS INLAND GULF STATES PROVIDING A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.  IN
ADDITION TO MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL GA/NRN AL INTO SWRN TN...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE DISCRETE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WIND MAX AND CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
INTENSE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT.

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS
AM...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING POTENTIAL E
OF COASTAL RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR
THEN OTHER PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE.  WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM UP TO 400MB AND FAVORABLY
STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN....SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS
SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

..HALES/EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.