[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191239
SWODY1
SPC AC 191237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 WNW MLU 25 WNW ELD 15 NE HOT 15 W ARG 20 SSE CGI
10 E PAH 40 WSW HOP 35 E MKL MSL 40 N GAD 20 E GAD 30 SW ANB 15 WSW
0A8.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25
ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S
MHE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 70 SE BNO 30 NNE
EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 40 S TYR
45 NW HOT 20 NNW MDH 20 WSW IND 10 NE DAY 20 ENE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY
TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...

HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NCNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE WLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...ALTHOUGH 850MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH TIME.

GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...ONGOING E-W MCS MAY NOT PROGRESS
SIGNIFICANTLY SWD BUT RATHER STALL ACROSS NRN MS/AL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM OVER AR/MS MAY HOWEVER AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG ERN-MOST EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES.  LATEST THINKING IS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS A
RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NRN LA INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED
3000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/MS WHERE STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN
MORE DISCRETE.

E-W BAND OF STORMS ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING MAY
NOT PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION TO THE MEAN WIND.  HOWEVER...LATER DEVELOPMENT COULD
FOCUS ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST WITH MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.