[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190555
SWODY1
SPC AC 190554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
MOB 10 SW JAN 45 S GLH 35 SSE PBF 50 NE PBF 30 N MEM 55 NNE MKL 30 S
OWB 40 E BMG 20 WNW LUK 40 SSE LUK 35 W JKL 45 SSW TYS 20 NE ATL 25
ENE CSG 30 N DHN 40 SW TOI 55 NNE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25
ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S
MHE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 50 SSE DLS 70 SE
BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLS 50 NNE HOU
60 NNE LIT 10 SE SLO 20 NW IND 30 N DAY 30 WSW HLG 20 ENE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS...

...TN VALLEY/MS/AL/GA...
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NRN LA ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN KY. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WEAK AND THE DAY 2 SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE CNTRL AND
SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE WRN TN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S F
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NRN MS IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORM INITIATION APPEARS
MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NRN MS AND SRN TN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION BUT STORMS STILL
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NRN MS AND AL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY ACROSS NW MS
SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60
KT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SSEWD DOWN THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IF SFC TEMPS CAN WARM MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS ACROSS MS AND AL...A COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NW MS...AL AND NW GA.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MS AND AL.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN OH VALLEY AND NRN TN...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN IND...KY AND TN. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.