[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190056
SWODY1
SPC AC 190055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
GLH 15 SSW ELD 30 WNW ELD 45 ENE TXK 30 SW ARG 45 N POF 10 SW ALN 35
SE SPI 25 WNW HUF 25 ENE BMG 40 SW LUK 10 SE LEX 40 WSW LOZ 45 ENE
HSV 20 SSW CBM 45 S GLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CRE 20 SSE CAE
15 WSW LGC 30 W LUL 10 SSW POE LFK 10 ENE TYR 45 ENE PRX 30 E PGO 50
ESE HRO 45 ESE TBN 35 WNW STL 30 ESE IRK 55 W LWD 20 ENE OMA 55 NNE
OMA 15 SSW FOD 15 W MLI 30 SSE CGX 45 SE DTW 15 SW JHW 30 ENE IPT 10
ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HLC 35 ENE GLD
10 E BFF 15 SE 81V 55 S GDV 30 NW DIK 30 NNW BIS 20 SW JMS 30 SW ATY
20 WSW OLU 55 SSW HSI 10 WSW HLC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG
25 E CEC 50 S EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...MID MS VALLEY/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL SHIFT THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM NRN LA
EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN AR...SE MO AND SRN IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS THE
STRONGEST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 TO 65
KT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION...03Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KY SHOW LARGE
LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING BELOW 800 MB. THIS
COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 500 TO 700 METERS WILL RESULT IN A
TORNADO THREAT AS SUPERCELLS TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND
NWRN TN THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH
STORMS THAT TRACK EWD IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT IN FAR SRN IL
AND NEAR THE OH RIVER IN WRN KY. ALSO...STORMS THAT TRACK EWD INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN TN SHOULD HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING
AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY NEAR CELL MERGERS. IF A
NEARLY SOLID LINE CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS KY...TN AND AR...THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.