[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
GLH 10 SSE TXK 25 ESE FSM 25 SSE SGF 10 E JEF 25 S SPI 25 NW HUF 40
E BMG 45 NE SDF 30 E SDF 55 E BWG 30 NNW CHA 30 SE HSV 50 ENE GWO 45
WSW GLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG
25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25 W BKX 35 W YKN 25
NW EAR 15 SSE IML 40 SW DEN 35 W MTJ 40 ENE U24 35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH
20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW ABR ...CONT... 30 SW
GLS 55 E CLL 50 SE DAL 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE MKC 35
ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE
CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25
ENE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-LWR MS AND LWR
OH VLYS...

...LWR-MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS 
FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE MID MS VLY REGION.  MAJORITY OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS
SITUATED FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
IN FACT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS/VWP/PROFILERS SHOW A VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE.  NONETHELESS...AIR MASS HAS
BECOME BUOYANT WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE
DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH.  

THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM
CNTRL/ERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS HAS YET TO
MOVE THROUGH.  VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SWELLING CUMULUS ACROSS AREAS
BETWEEN TBN-STL.  THESE WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AND MOVE INTO 
SRN IL AND FAR W KY LATER THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS
IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED...
CONSIDERABLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER IS QUITE STRONG AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.  FARTHER N...ATOP THE COLDER
BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL FROM CNTRL IL INTO
SWRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING.  

TO THE SW...LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
SUPPORTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...THOUGH THE
AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
ON TSTMS DEVELOPING SW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT.  THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE TSTM INITIATION...WILL
MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AS FAR S AS THE LA BORDER.  

THE ETA REMAINS EMPHATIC ON DEVELOPING TSTMS LATER THIS
EVENING...EVIDENTLY IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
JET ACROSS NERN TX INTO SRN AR.  BUT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR ACTUALLY
SHOWS INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IF TSTMS INDEED
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.