[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181611
SWODY1
SPC AC 181609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
MLU 30 SSE TXK 40 E FSM 30 E SGF 30 SSE IRK 30 WNW SPI 20 NE CMI 35
S MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 E LEX 30 WSW LOZ 55 SE BNA 25 W HSV 50 ESE GWO
35 NNE MLU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25
W BKX 35 W YKN 25 NW EAR 15 SSE IML 25 WNW 4FC 45 NE U28 40 ENE U24
35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH 20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW
ABR ...CONT... 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 35
SSE VCT 35 SSE AUS 30 ESE ACT 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE
MKC 35 ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT...
15 SSE CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN ...CONT... 20 WNW FMY
30 NNE GNV 15 NE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25
ENE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...

...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
ENEWD THRU OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.  SURFACE LOW SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MO
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES IT BY TO THE E.
 WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/NRN KY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS
INTO WRN TN/OH VALLEYS TO THE S OF WARM FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE S/WV TROUGH AND VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET HAS RESULTED
IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH VALLEY SWWD INTO AR.  MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN ELEVATED...HOWEVER BAND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E/W ACROSS AR THAT ARE SURFACE BASED.
EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND WHERE
SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG ARE
AVAILABLE.

MUCH OF AFTERNOON PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND
MOVING EWD ACROSS AR INTO NRN MS AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EWD. CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS THAT IS
SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FURTHER N TO THE E
OF SURFACE LOW...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND ACTIVE SEVERE POSSIBLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING IN THE CLEAR SLOT MOVES
ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED
VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE E OF THIS AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOME.

THE DRY LINE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AR SWWD INTO NERN TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL WARMING IN WAKE OF THE S/WV TROUGH AND
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AREA.
HOWEVER WITH LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS AS FAR S AS SWRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.