[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181230
SWODY1
SPC AC 181228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
ELD 40 NNE TXK 20 SE FSM 35 ENE SGF 30 NW COU UIN 20 SE BMI 30 SSW
MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW LEX 20 SE BNA 40 NW MSL 40 NNW GWO 40
NE ELD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PSX 35 ESE CLL
45 SW TYR 30 SSW PRX 25 NW PGO 25 WNW JLN 30 N EMP 40 W CNK 45 SW
IML 20 WNW 4FC 10 NW U28 30 SW U24 35 SSW ENV 20 E TWF 20 SSW MQM 45
ENE WEY 20 WSW SHR 35 NNW 81V 35 SSW Y22 35 ENE MBG 35 E ABR RWF 10
ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE
10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AR/MO...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO
VEER AS IT BECOMES FOCUSED FROM WRN TN INTO SRN OH.  RESULTANT WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW EXPANSIVE MCS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN
RECOVERING AIRMASS.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE WRN EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS AND WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WILL
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO WHERE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS ALREADY RISING THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR NEAR-SFC BASED
CONVECTION DESPITE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST THINKING IS
ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT EWD DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL AR...NEWD
INTO SRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC
LOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION...AND
WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  IN
THE SHORT TERM...ACTIVITY ACROSS AR MAY SLOWLY INTENSIFY...EVOLVING
INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION.

..DARROW.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.