[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180600
SWODY1
SPC AC 180558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
PBF 25 NE HOT 50 N HOT 40 NE SGF 15 ESE SZL 40 E STJ 30 WSW LWD 30
NNW LWD 25 ESE DSM 15 NNE PIA 30 SSW MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW
LEX 20 SE BNA 35 NE UOX 50 E PBF 15 WNW PBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 SSW GGG
45 ENE TUL 25 NW CNU 35 N RSL 40 E SNY 55 ENE CAG 50 SE VEL 25 WSW
U24 40 W ENV 30 NNE OWY 10 NW HLN 75 SSW GGW 35 NNE DIK BIS RWF 10
ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW FMY 50 SSE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE
10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY...

...MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN OH AND TN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE CONVECTION DRIFTS EWD...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN AR
AND MO...HELPING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT UP QUICKLY INTO THE 80S F BY
MID-DAY. THIS WILL SET UP AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ORIENTED
SSW TO NNE ACROSS AR...SE MO AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INITIATE EAST OF
THE SFC LOW NEAR ST LOUIS BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
IN THE EVENING SSWWD ACROSS SE MO AND ERN AR.

THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ST LOUIS AT 21Z MONDAY SHOWS ABOUT 55
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND
MATURE...MOVING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS
SERN MO AND SRN IL. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS
AREA WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS MERGERS IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE STORMS SHOULD RETAIN A SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE
OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID TN
VALLEY.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.