[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171608
SWODY1
SPC AC 171607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
HOT 35 ESE FSM 30 N SGF COU 40 NW STL 15 E SLO 20 NNW HOP 55 SW CKV
35 S MKL 15 ESE HOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 20 ESE OLM
30 NE SEA 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 ENE 63S 10 NNE MSO 10 ENE WEY 55
NNE BPI 25 SSE LND 40 NNW LAR 25 NW BFF 50 ESE CDR 40 SE MHN 20 SSE
MCK 10 ESE GLD 20 NW LIC 35 WSW COS 35 N LVS 35 SE ABQ 45 NNW SVC 55
SSW INW 10 ESE CDC 10 E ELY 20 S NFL 10 SSW RNO TVL 60 SSE TVL 45
ENE MER 25 N MER 30 ESE SAC 25 NW SAC 55 NW UKI ...CONT... 35 SSE
VCT 35 ESE ACT 20 W PRX 25 W JLN 25 SSW FNB 35 WSW LWD 30 E OTM 15 S
LAF 20 NW BKW 20 W HSS 10 NW RMG 25 SSW BHM 30 SE LUL 25 SE HUM
...CONT... 20 WSW BHB 50 NNE 3B1 80 WNW CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE RAPID READJUSTMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY OVER
THE CONUS.  STRONG SEWD DIGGING TROUGH OFF PAC NW COAST HAS OPENED
UP OLD CLOSED LOW W OF SRN CA WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING EWD AS
A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS SWRN U.S.

AT THE SURFACE A LOW DEVELOPING LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SWRN TROUGH REACHES ERN KS/OK BY 12Z
MON. SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY THIS EVENING
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO MORE SWLY AND SHIFTING
EWD TOWARD LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT.

VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY BEING TRANSPORTED NWD
THRU ERN TX/LA INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AHEAD OF SWRN S/W
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG UPPER JET.

...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY...
PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY
TONIGHT ACROSS MO/NRN AR. WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE
TX...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATING NEWD ON THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...A MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ERN TX
INTO SRN AR WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG COASTAL TX TO 2000 J/KG SRN
AR.

CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE  LLJ
NOW EXTENDING INLAND FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO THE  W OF HOU.  WITH
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE...STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

HOWEVER FARTHER N TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THE FAST MOVING TROUGH
AND 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND PVA WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS BRING THESE PARAMETERS TOGETHER BETWEEN 03-06Z VICINITY SRN
MO/NRN AR WITH AN EXPANDING AREA REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MID
MS VALLEY.  WITH ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS.

...NRN CA...
VIGOROUS S/WV OFF PAC NW COAST WILL DRIVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/SRN
OR THIS EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES SAC VALLEY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS...CONTINGENT ON THE AIR MASS 
ADDED A CONDITIONAL LOW PROB OF SEVERE NRN CA ...PARTICULARLY NRN
SAC VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.