[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171254
SWODY1
SPC AC 171252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
LIT 25 SSW HRO 20 NNW SGF 35 WSW JEF 40 WSW STL 10 WSW MVN 40 NNW
HOP 45 E MKL 35 S MKL 40 ENE LIT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST EAT 40 N
4OM ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 70 NW FCA GTF COD CPR MHN 10 NE MCK LHX RTN
45 SE LVS ABQ U17 CDC 70 W P38 BIH FAT SCK EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 LAF DAY HTS 35
ESE 5I3 TRI RMG TCL JAN 35 N ESF SHV 35 ENE PRX JLN STJ P35.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PWM 3B1 70 WNW
CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS TO
MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA AND NV...
WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING SRN
STREAM FLOW EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...BEFORE TURNING
EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE CA/NV TROUGH. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS REGION.

...SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS VALLEY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE LA/AR BORDER AND THEN ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD TODAY AS
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM OK/TX EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CA/NV UPPER TROUGH.  BY
LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 03Z/...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS TO SWRN MO AND SEWD TO NRN AL/GA.  MID-UPPER
60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS AR THIS EVENING AND
INTO SRN MO TO WRN KY/TN TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NRN LA/ARKLATEX...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NRN AR/MO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS
VALLEY.  SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH
SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT THIS
EVENING.  STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH INCREASING WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN
ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. 

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO
AR/MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING SEVERE THREAT EWD
TO SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN.

..PETERS/HART.. 10/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.