[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170525
SWODY1
SPC AC 170524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
ARG 25 ENE HRO 15 SE SGF 40 NNE SGF 30 SSW JEF 30 ENE VIH 30 SSW BLV
10 SW MDH 20 WSW PAH 15 NW DYR JBR 45 W ARG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P35 10 NNW DNV
35 SSW CRW 35 ENE TRI 50 WSW AVL 30 S MSL 15 E PBF 30 W PBF 45 ESE
FSM 50 NW FYV FLV 15 W P35.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST 25 NW YKM
20 N 4OM 10 NNE 63S 30 N 3TH 45 ESE MLS 35 WNW PHP 30 NNW BBW 50 NNE
HLC 50 NNE GCK 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LVS 50 SSE GNT 50 NNE SOW 25 SE SGU
40 ENE SCK 35 SSW EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND NE
AR...

CORRECTED WRN TX TO WRN TN IN LAST PARAGRAPH

...MID MS VALLEY...
A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS E TX AND THE OZARKS THIS EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
NWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 70 F REACHING THE SRN OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EWD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AR AND WRN TN.
STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SRN
MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

BECAUSE OF THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE MO AT
06Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS BUT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LESS BECAUSE THE
STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.

THE SWIFT WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER QUICKLY
EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP IN NE AR AND
WRN TN AS STORMS INITIATE...SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND
WRN KY LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.