[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161608
SWODY1
SPC AC 161606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF 30 S CHO
SSU 25 S 5I3 15 N JKL 25 W UNI 20 NE CMH 20 NNW MFD 20 SE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MSS 35 SSW BTV
20 WSW MWN 30 N AUG HUL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN U.S...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
ERN OH/KY EARLY...THEN SPREADING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING.  WHILE
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN VORT MAX...COOLING
ALOFT AND LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CAUSE
SOME LAKE EFFECT THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL.

...SRN CA...
UPPER LOW WITH CENTER APPROXIMATELY 325 NM OFF THE SANTA BARBARA
COAST AS OF 16Z WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN CA
BY SUNDAY MORNING.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IN UPPER REACHES OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.  THEREFORE...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA...WILL OPT TO REMOVE 10
PERCENT THUNDER LINE.

..JEWELL/HALES.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.