[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161245
SWODY1
SPC AC 161243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK
45 NNE UCA 45 ENE UCA 20 SW GFL 15 ENE EEN 20 WNW PWM 40 NW EPM
...CONT... 10 SSW WAL 40 N RIC 20 WSW SHD 10 NW HLG CAK 30 NNW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 35 E MRY 45
NE SMX 35 NW PMD 20 NNE RAL 25 W TRM CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS GULF OF AK TROUGH
DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE WA/OR COAST...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE SUBSEQUENT
DISPLACEMENT OF LARGE...COLD GREAT LAKES TROUGH NNEWD INTO CANADA.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TURN EWD AND TRACK OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.  

RECENT INTRUSION OF COLD/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO TO NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID MS VALLEY JET STREAK SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND NERN STATES.  THESE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-28C AT DVN 12Z SOUNDING/ WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...LAKE INDUCED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER AND IN LEE OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO
TODAY...AS COLD LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /0 TO -4C AT 850 MB/
SPREADS ACROSS WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES /15-17C/ STRENGTHENING THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.  

...PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF SRN CA
COAST...IS PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD SRN CA
IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM GULF OF AK TROUGH.  AS MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD TOWARD SRN CA BY LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.