[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161929
SWODY1
SPC AC 161927

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL RIC 10 SW
CHO 25 SE MGW 25 NE LBE 30 NE FKL 30 SW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 15 ESE ALB
25 N ORH 20 WNW PWM HUL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN U.S...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NRN VA AND MD ATTM.  SPORADIC TSTMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET STREAK TODAY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD SRN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GRTLKS WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN STEEP AND OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES REMAIN LONG.  ALL
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

...SRN CA COAST...
UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING AND
EJECTING NEWD. IT SHOULD REACH SRN CA BY 12Z. COOLING ALOFT WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT OVER SRN CA AND ISOLD LIGHTNING
MAY OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS PER VSBL SATELLITE AND LONG RANGE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA. 
THIS SUPPORTS THE REMOVAL OF 10 PERCENT+ GENERAL TSTM LINE IN
EARLIER FORECAST.

..RACY.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.