[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160513
SWODY1
SPC AC 160511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK
UCA ELM 30 N MSV 10 N ALB EEN 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 20 ENE SBY 45 N
RIC 20 WSW SHD 25 NW MGW ERI 60 W BUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL
COOLING/DRYING HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND
ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS
A RESULT ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE
MINIMUM.

NEXT IN SERIES OF JET STREAKS/SHORT WAVES TOPPING RETROGRADING
PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
 MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE INLAND.  MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.  WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINING DRY...PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR REMOTE.

...UPPER OHIO/LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
STRONG MID/UPPER JET IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  

AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS LOW AS -28C...LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
EARLY AS 18Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...DEVELOPING IN
COOLING CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.