[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160047
SWODY1
SPC AC 160046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 40 NNE ORF
25 WSW DOV 10 WSW PHL TTN EWR 10 WNW ISP 15 WSW BID.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE
DELMARVA TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SPREAD INTO REGION.  FRONT
WILL PROGRESS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH.

MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION FORMED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
 PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...BETWEEN
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.