[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151942
SWODY1
SPC AC 151940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
RIC 15 NNW RIC 20 ENE CHO 25 S MRB 20 E HGR 35 N BWI 30 E BWI 35 NNE
NHK 25 SE NHK 35 ENE RIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 NW HSE
15 SSE ECG 20 SW ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SW RIC CHO 20 SSW MRB HGR 15 SSW
LBE 35 NE ZZV 35 NNW MFD 25 SSE FNT 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... FMY 10 NNW
VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN VA AND CNTRL/ERN
MD...

...NRN VA-CNTRL/ERN MD...
18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING VCNTY KCHO
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT NWD INTO CNTRL PA AND A TRAILING DRYLINE/
COLD FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL NC.  PRIMARY WARM CONVEYER BELT AND
ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAVE RAPIDLY MOVED EWD...WITH THE
BACK EDGE SITUATED ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY EWD.  IN ITS WAKE...DRY SLOT
HAS WORKED NWD INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM CNTRL VA NWD
INTO THE KCXY AREA.  INSOLATION HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60F. 

STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE CENTERED OVER NRN VA AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR KIAD BY EARLY EVENING. 
CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN
MAINTAINING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VLY OF NRN VA
EWD TOWARD THE FREDERICKSBURG/WASHINGTON/FREDERICK AREAS.  

AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM
IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  ORIENTATION OF THE
MEAN WIND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  IF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN INDEED
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO TOO. 

FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY
DIMINISHES OWING TO MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. 
HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLD
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY.

...SRN FL...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH VERO BEACH
AND FORT MYERS PER WSHFT AT BOTH SITES.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
FLOW REMAINS VEERED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY YET
DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT...BUT LIFE CYCLES SHOULD BE SHORT. 
NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR.  THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..RACY.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.