[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151613
SWODY1
SPC AC 151611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
ORF 25 SE RIC 30 NE RIC 10 ENE DCA 30 ESE BWI 10 N DOV 30 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 WNW DAB
...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 10 NNE EKN 25 NW HLG 25
ENE FWA 25 WSW LAN 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DELMARVA...

...DELMARVA...
VERY STRONG TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION
OVER ERN U.S.  THE S/WV INITIALLY AT 12Z FROM OH VALLEY SWD WITH
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WRN OH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
SEWD WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER LWR MI SAT AM
WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS TN VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NWD FROM LE ACROSS LH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEEPENING SERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN PA SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AS 
THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION IMPLIED BY THE 180M 12HR 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AT ILN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  WITH LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S...MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  HOWEVER WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT IN PLACE
COUPLED WITH THE 80 PLUS KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV TROUGH...CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED GENERALLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF BLUE RIDGE.  PRIMARY THREAT
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATICS.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NEWD TOWARD
SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

...SRN FL...
FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL CLEAR THE
PENINSULA BY LATER THIS EVENING.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT SUPPORTS
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
SMALL AS THE DEEP TROPICAL AIR IS NOW S AND E OF FL. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
THRU THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MUCAPES
UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP SERN COAST PROVIDED SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN SET UP INLAND GIVEN
THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT. ANY STORM ALONG SEA BREEZE WOULD BE IN AN
ENHANCED AREA OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE

..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.