[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151302
SWODY1
SPC AC 151300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX
...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10
SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY AS SEVERAL
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE AROUND THIS FEATURE.  STRONG
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER OH ATTM WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONG SWLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS GA.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE ERN TROUGH IS NO LONGER DIGGING WITH
THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA
THIS AFTERNOON.

...FL PENINSULA...
AT 12Z...SRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SC SWD TO
ALONG THE GA COAST...THEN SWWD TO LEVY COUNTY FL AND INTO THE GULF. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT
FROM ERN SC TO NRN FL/ERN GULF...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OFFSHORE.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE GA/SC BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN FL.  MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS /LOWER 60S/
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER TAMPA 12Z
SOUNDING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE AOB 1000
J/KG/...DESPITE SOME SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.  VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
WEAK UPPER FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES CENTRAL FL WILL
FURTHER INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KT THIS MORNING.


...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ERN NC/SERN VA...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SRN
EXTENT OF VORTICITY WITH THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL ERN NC/SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE
THIS FORCING...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM
AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  FOR THIS REASON...STRONGEST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY.  HOWEVER...IF SOME INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/SERN VA COASTAL REGIONS...THERE WOULD BE A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.


...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL PA INTO WRN NY...
AS VERY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER OH /-26C AT ILN 12Z
SOUNDING/ SPREADS NEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND INTO
WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.