[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150546
SWODY1
SPC AC 150545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX
...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10
SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST RETROGRESSION OF UPPER HIGH AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BROADENS
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES MIGRATING AROUND
NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.

A JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...TOPPING RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...MODELS INDICATE LARGE
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN GULF STATES...WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  A COUPLE OF SMALLER
SCALE SHORT WAVES COMPOSE BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING FROM NEAR THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  ENHANCED FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...WHICH BY
DAYBREAK APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.  WITH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOW TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITH ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.  DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S...
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY BE SUPPORTING
ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...VEERING FLOW WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO FORM OFF COASTAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE.  40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MODEL FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS... PROVIDING AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.