[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150052
SWODY1
SPC AC 150050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
CEW 35 ENE MAI 25 NNE VLD 30 WNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 55 SSW GNV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE SEM BHM 35
ENE HSV 25 SSE BWG OWB 30 N EVV BMG 10 ENE MIE FDY 35 N CLE ERI BFD
30 ENE PSB 30 NE CHO 40 S CHO 50 N RWI 30 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
FLORIDA AND SRN GEORGIA....

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK HAS
DEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. THIS IS OCCURRING AS ANOTHER STRONG
MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
UPSTREAM FEATURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS
TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORMATION OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z.

STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LACK OF
WARMER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LACK OF MORE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS.

...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...
MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 50F...IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ONGOING ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN BAND OF
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...
WHICH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH VERY WEAK CAPE WILL MINIMIZE VIGOR
OF UPDRAFTS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTION IN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST WIND
FIELDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AHEAD OF LINE
ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KTS...SO LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
SEVERE LIMITS SEEMS LOW.

...NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY
15/06Z.  ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD POSE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST POTENTIAL MAY
BE NEAR NORTHERN/WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET.  GIVEN
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE.  THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES... WHICH
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 10/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.