[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141956
SWODY1
SPC AC 141955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
PFN 15 SW MAI 25 S ABY 40 WNW AYS 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30
NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL
35 S POU 15 ESE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM GPT 15 ENE
MEI 15 SSW CBM 30 NNE TUP 35 NE MKL 25 S PAH 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK
10 ENE HLG 20 SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN GULF COASTAL
AREA...

...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA...
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL STAY WELL
OFFSHORE...BUT MOISTENING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA
OVERNIGHT.

TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF WRN FL PNHDL SHOULD EXPAND
AND INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS MAY OCCUR OWING TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING
LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.  THE LOW-
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER STRONG...SWLY H5 FLOW OF 65 KTS ATOP
SWLY H85 WINDS OF 45 KTS.  THUS...ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LATER TONIGHT.  MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...
WILL LIKELY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  

...SRN FL...
SRN PERIPHERY OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO GRAZE SRN FL
LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE MIDLEVEL CONVECTION NOTED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SW OF KEYW INVOF AN OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND
INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS.  

THE MIDLEVEL FLOW IN SRN FL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD GUSTY
WINDS LATE TONIGHT.  
  
...LWR OH/MID TN VLYS...
A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
LEADING EDGE OF 150 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS.  INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL
DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN KY AND MID TN.  HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
SUGGESTS THAT A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  STRONG SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY THIS
EVENING.

..RACY.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.