[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141618
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
BVE 30 E MOB 25 SSE TOI 25 N ABY 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30
NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL
35 S POU 15 ESE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 55 NE ATY
25 NE BKX 20 SE HON 35 ENE PIR 35 SSE BIS 45 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 35 E DRT 45
ENE LRD 15 NE ALI 50 SSE VCT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 SSW HEZ
30 SE JAN 40 SSW CBM 40 ENE DYR 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20
SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NE GULF COAST
EWD TO THE NE FL AND GA COASTS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS UNDERWAY
WITH ONE INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER AR/MO
AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS AND
MN...RESULTING IN A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD LOW ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN INVOF OH AS THE AR/MO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /WITH 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 M/ ROTATES EWD THEN
NEWD BY LATE TONIGHT.  S OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...REACHING THE NE GULF COAST AND APPALACHIANS BY LATER
TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND NRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH.

...NE GULF COAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE GULF
IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
INSTABILITY CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NW
GULF.  THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIMITED MERIDIONAL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND RATHER POOR UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE
NE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT.  GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

...S FL AREA...
A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL
SPREAD SLOWLY NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS S FL IN
RESPONSE TO THE MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD
BE MOIST PROFILES WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SPEED SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.