[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141238
SWODY1
SPC AC 141236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
GPT 40 ENE MOB 35 N DHN 55 NNW AYS 25 WNW SSI 30 S JAX 30 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 35 ESE SHV
50 N GLH 15 NNE DYR 40 NNE SDF 20 E LYH 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 40 ESE
DOV 20 ENE PHL 25 S POU 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 W LRD 35 ENE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE ATY
35 ESE HON 10 SW 9V9 25 ESE PHP 50 SW MBG 35 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF
COAST AND SERN STATES...

...NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN AL/GA...
DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES.  
AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND
INTO DOWNSTREAM POSITION...INTENSIFICATION INTO A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY...PRIOR TO SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST
WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...TO AS FAR
E AS CNTRL SC SWD ACROSS ERN GA AND THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY 15/12Z.

EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN AND N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY
RECOVERING IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE TX COAST WILL LIKELY BE
MAINTAINED EWD TODAY BY NARROW AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER THETA-E BEING
ADVECTED NWD IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...CONTRIBUTING TO THE NEWD
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE FL PNHDL INTO SRN PARTS OF AL AND GA.
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION TO ONSHORE
PORTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AT THIS TIME OWING TO STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND IT/S INTERACTION WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS/.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-200
M2/S2...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN
SQUALL LINE /QLCS TYPE/ OR WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING
FARTHER TO THE E IN WARM SECTOR.

...SRN FL...
TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS WITH APPROACH OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
A ROTATING STORM OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING
SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

...ND...
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
STORMS LATER TODAY INVOF SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...A FEW OF THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.