[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140552
SWODY1
SPC AC 140550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
HUM MOB 30 E TOI 50 NE MGR AYS 35 S JAX 20 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 45 E ATY
35 SW OTG 15 SE YKN 40 SSW MHE 40 ENE PIR 25 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 25 S AUS 15
ESE LFK 50 SE SHV 40 S PBF 60 SW ARG 20 NW SDF 35 WSW MGW 15 ENE BWI
20 SSW POU 25 NNE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES....

PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT FEATURES EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAVE BEEN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
AND VERY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING AROUND ITS NORTHERN/
EASTERN PERIPHERY.  JET STREAK AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAVE BEGUN TO DIG MORE STRONGLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FORMING HIGH AMPLITUDE...NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.  MODELS DO SUGGEST A
WEAKER WAVE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD THIS FRONT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD NEAR GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
THIS LOW/WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATES INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...HOWEVER...AND THIS REVOLVES MOSTLY AROUND
RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH MID DAY APPEARS
LIKELY...AND PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION APPEAR
LIMITED...AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE EASTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY
NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA PARISHES...THEN BY EARLY EVENING
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. 
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN UNSTABLE OFFSHORE AIR MASS...WHERE
CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ...PROVIDING
MAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY
EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY POSE ADDITIONAL RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...
WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION UNLIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS...
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS....
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN TROPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.