[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140038
SWODY1
SPC AC 140036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
CRP ALI 55 E P07 45 S MAF 35 SE BGS 30 SSW ABI 10 SSW AUS 50 SSE AUS
30 SSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRE 40 WSW GSO
ROA 15 ENE SHD MRB 15 NW ILG 25 SSE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DMN 60 SW SVC
SAD 25 NW SVC TCS 30 NNE ALM ROW 65 NNW ABI MWL 40 ESE 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS....

DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING/DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND LIFT TOWARD MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...LOCATED
IN BASE OF LEAD UPPER TROUGH...IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR WAVE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE LIFTED PARCELS LIKELY HAVE
ORIGINS IN HEATED WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER.  WITH ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING...RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
DIMINISHING.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT AT TOP OF DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION LAYER MAY STILL BE WARM/UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

...TEXAS...
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING
TRENDS TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN TEXAS...PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING NORTH/WEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS.  AS COLD FRONT
SURGES/REDEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG
BEND AREA THIS EVENING...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY BECOME FOCUSED
ALONG/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO.

CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED THROUGH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LEVEL
OF FREE CONVECTION MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.