[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122005
SWODY1
SPC AC 122003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 50 ENE ELP
30 SSE CNM 20 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN TUP CGI 25 NE
VIH UIN MLI MMO 45 N LAF PKB RWI ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 SSE COT
30 S ALI 30 WNW MFE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVING SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM ACROSS CONUS...TOWARD
MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD FROM
PACIFIC NW...AND RETROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE
OFFSHORE SRN CA.  MID/UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER SRN MO -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND
DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS EJECTION PROCESS WILL OCCUR
AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES -- DIGS SEWD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT OVER NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD.
 BROAD/DIFFUSE CYCLONE OVER SERN MO AND TN VALLEY REGION SHOULD
DRIFT NWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY...BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  MEANWHILE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS
OVER AL WILL DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN GA.

...SERN CONUS...
VIS IMAGE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AMIDST WEAKENING CINH...FROM MID TN SEWD
ACROSS NRN AL INTO WRN GA.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING SLOWLY BOOSTS DEEP-LAYER
LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS.  EXPECT MLCAPES TO RISE
INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC HEATING AND 60S/LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS OFFSET
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  RELATIVE DRYING BEHIND CONFLUENCE LINE --
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS MS/AL -- WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STMS THERE RELATIVE TO FARTHER N/NE. 
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...KEEPING HODOGRAPHS SMALL EVEN WHERE FLOW IS
RELATIVELY BACKED E OF SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS.  HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FASTER THAN
CONFLUENCE LINE...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR TO 40-50 KT
ACROSS MORE OF MOIST SECTOR.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL
SUPERCELL/BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH A FEW STORMS...LOCALLY ENHANCING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.