[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121613
SWODY1
SPC AC 121611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20
NNW CNM 35 WNW MAF 25 SW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 20 W MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 25 W MGR
0A8 25 SSE MEM 25 NE VIH 35 S IRK 15 S MLI 15 NW MMO 45 N LAF 30 WNW
DAY 25 ESE PKB 30 NW RWI 25 ENE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS A NRN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. 
IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
SW MO WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE
MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE SWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. 
THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SE MO...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ARCS
SEWD ACROSS WRN TN AND SWD ACROSS AL.  12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A DEEP
MOIST LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS TN/AL/GA...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE
SAME AREA.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F SHOULD
SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ACROSS NE AL/N GA AND MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKER AND ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER IN ADVANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
SPEED MAX EJECTING EWD FROM SE AR/NW MS.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE STORMS...THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.