[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20
NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AQQ 20 N DHN 10
SE CBM 25 SSE MEM 30 ENE JBR 25 NE VIH 30 SSE UIN 20 S BMI 10 S CMH
25 ESE PKB 30 NNW SSU 10 S BKW 20 WSW PSK 40 S ROA 20 WNW RDU 30 ENE
FAY 30 SW ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SERN STATES...
IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL
CANADA...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO WILL TRANSLATE
EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER WRN TN...WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL
PRECEDE THIS COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS AL/GA TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN FEED OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR OFF THE ERN GULF/WRN ATLANTIC
NWWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG AND E OF SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CO-EXIST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SEWD ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF AL/GA. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED
MID-LEVEL INVERSION OBSERVED BY 12Z GULF COAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD TEND
TO LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

...SWRN TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL BAJA CA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE
NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN BREAK ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.