[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120553
SWODY1
SPC AC 120551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20
NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PFN 20 WNW TOI
CBM 50 SW MEM ARG 35 NNW POF 20 NW MDH 30 N EVV 50 NE LEX 25 NW 5I3
TRI 25 NNE SPA 10 SE CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS/TN VALLEYS TO SERN STATES...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS...WITH
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN SEWD MOVEMENT OF
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA.  THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY AS IT CARVES A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES...AND EJECTS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...NEAR JLN
ATTM...SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THE CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH.  50 KT WLY SPEED MAX WILL
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND STRENGTHEN WITH 40-50 KT WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO SC.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
INITIALLY LOCATED NEAR MEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD SRN IND. 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS WRN KY/TN AND AL TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN IND TO GA
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
ENEWD ACROSS KY/TN TODAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. 
SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MOIST AIR
MASS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON FROM AL INTO GA/NRN FL.  HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES GIVEN
A MID-LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-550 MB PER GFS FORECAST AND
OBSERVED 00Z LCH/SLIDELL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT.  DRY MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.