[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120051
SWODY1
SPC AC 120049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 30 SSW TCL
15 ENE UOX 25 WNW ARG 10 N SGF 10 NE SZL 35 SSE IRK 25 SW SPI 45 SW
BMG 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM
20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB
45 ENE TAD 45 ENE CVS 15 WNW MAF 95 SSE MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX...
BINARY STRUCTURE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AS THE WRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RETROGRADES WWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN CA.  THE ERN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NM PER WV IMAGERY...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED
OVER NM/FAR SWRN TX.  THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARMING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES.  THIS
COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SEWD TO
FAR SWRN TX...AND GREATLY DIMINISH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO OR 30-40 SW ELP
AT 00Z PER ELP RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER
AS IT TRACKS ESE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  GIVEN THE ABOVE
REASONING...THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  IF THIS STORM REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL
AFFECTING FAR SRN HUDSPETH COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE U.S.
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS ONE SUPERCELL...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
WARRANTED.

..PETERS.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.