[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111901
SWODY1
SPC AC 111859

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM
20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB
45 ENE TAD PVW BGS 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS MEI 50 SW
JBR HRO UMN 60 NNW SGF JEF STL 30 N EVV 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...DOMINATED BY CYCLONES OVER SWRN CONUS AND OVER OK.  LATTER
CYCLONE IS FCST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN OZARKS REGION
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...SHIFTING CLOSER TO SFC CENTER NOW
ANALYZED OVER NRN AR.  WEAK SFC COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD THEN SSWWD FROM
AR LOW...ACROSS WRN MS AND S-CENTRAL LA.  DOUBLE WARM FRONTAL
STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED WITH MARINE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MS TO AL
COAST...AND SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT NEARLY BISECTING TN FROM W-E. 
LATTER FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY WHILE MARINE FRONT DRIFTS
NEWD AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN
EPISODIC CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW.
 WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

MEANWHILE...OUT W...UPPER LOW HAS BINARY STRUCTURE WITH CENTERS OVER
ERN AZ AND OVER SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.  AZ CENTER WILL CONTINUE
WEAKENING AND MOVING EWD INTO NM AS LOW-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE
PERTURBATION.  NV/CA CENTER IS FCST TO RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS SRN CA
THROUGH 12/12Z.

...SRN NM...FAR W TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL
HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT
PARTICULARLY INTENSE -- GENERALLY AOB 20 KT THROUGH MOST OF 0-6 KM
AGL LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM HDX/EPZ.  HOWEVER...NEARLY 180 DEG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING LEADS TO STRETCHED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST
MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED RUC2 FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC DEW POINTS 40S TO LOW 50S F AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AWAY
FROM AREAS STABILIZED BY ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION.  TSTMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL
COOLING RELATED BOTH TO OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC HEAT LOSS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.