[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111623
SWODY1
SPC AC 111622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 40 N MOB
40 ENE PBF 40 E FSM 25 NW FYV 60 NNW SGF 20 WSW JEF 10 SW STL 25 E
MVN 30 ESE OWB 45 ENE BNA 10 N RMG 20 SE MCN SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 WSW SAD
25 ENE PHX 40 S PRC 40 SSE IGM 10 WSW EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 35 NW
NID 60 SSE BIH 60 ESE TPH 45 SE ELY 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD 20 WSW BPI
40 NW RKS 40 E VEL 25 SE ASE 40 SW PUB 30 W DHT 25 E LBB 15 S BGS 45
ESE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.  THE MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE TWO SRN STREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGHS...ONE OVER SRN AZ AND ANOTHER OVER ERN OK/AR.  THE OK/AR
TROUGH WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AR.  A FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES FROM THE S/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...POOR
LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT STEEPER ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...DEEP LAYER DRYING AND A PRONOUNCED CAP NEAR 700 MB WILL
INHIBIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
GREATER ACROSS THE FAR W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ WILL EJECT EWD TODAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR W TX AND SRN
NM.  THE 12Z EPZ SOUNDING SUPPORTS SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S /WHERE CLOUD BREAKS
ARE PREVALENT/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 45-50 F.
 GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.