[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111233
SWODY1
SPC AC 111232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT 25 SW JAN
30 NW MLU 20 WSW TXK 10 NNW PGO 15 NNW HRO 30 SSE TBN 60 SW BLV 30 E
MDH 20 WNW BWG 25 W CSV 20 ESE CHA 45 W AGS 45 SW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 50
ENE PHX 25 SE PRC 40 WNW PRC 15 NE EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 25 NNE
EDW 70 W DRA 60 WNW P38 50 SSE ELY 30 W U24 25 WNW PUC 45 S VEL 25
NNE GUC 10 WSW TAD 10 SE TCC 40 NE HOB 30 ENE FST 20 S P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CIRCUITOUS AND BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
SEPARATING AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW AND A SUBTROPICAL STORM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
LATEST ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN PLAINS UPPER
LOW WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW ENEWD PROGRESS THROUGH TODAY AS REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
AL BY EARLY TUESDAY. BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW AHEAD OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS IN MOIST BUT
WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM FL AND THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD TO THE
MID MS AND LWR OH VALLEYS.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH. LEADING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST
ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE
ACROSS NV WILL DROP SWWD AND RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SRN
CA BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.

...NM/WEST TX...
CONTINUED MOISTENING AND LIFT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE 
MOGOLLON RIM TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 50S F/...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WEST TX AND SRN NM...SHOULD SUPPORT
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY WHILE
DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THIS MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRODUCED BY MODEST WLYS ATOP ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FURTHER PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF
HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.