[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110552
SWODY1
SPC AC 110550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 20
N PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S VEL
25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 35 N BTR 45
SSW ELD 20 WSW TXK PGO 25 SSE HRO 30 NNW ARG 35 SSW PAH 15 NE CHA 15
SE AHN 45 SW CHS ...CONT... 20 N VRB 60 WSW MIA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THREE CLOSED LOWS WILL BE THE PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
TODAY FROM THE SWRN STATES TO OK/TX...AND NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOSED
LOWS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW LOCATED
ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO
ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST/SRN ATLANTIC STATES.

...ERN AZ/NM/FAR SWRN TX...
LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO AZ WILL
RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
TO THE EAST OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AZ...WILL SPREAD EWD AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO FAR SWRN TX.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW
500 J/KG.  50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZ SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS ALSO INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. 
RESULTANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SWRN TX.

...OK/KS SEWD TO GULF COAST STATES...
REMNANTS OF T.S MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN TURN NWWD INTO MO ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CLOSED UPPER LOW AS THE LATTER MOVES SLOWLY NEWD. 
BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SRN STREAM
JET COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE ARC OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER TN
VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AND THEN SEWD ACROSS FL.  GENERALLY
WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK UPPER FORCING/SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.