[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110103
SWODY1
SPC AC 110101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 25 SSW ESF
55 SW TYR 15 NNW ABI 55 SSW CDS 55 N CDS 35 SE GAG 45 W TUL 45 ENE
FSM 40 WSW UOX 15 NE 0A8 30 ESE CSG 15 SSE SAV ...CONT... DAB 50 W
ORL 20 WNW FMY 55 E EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 S PRC 40
SE IGM 45 SW LAS 35 SW DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 NW P38 DPG 30 SE MLD 40 S
BPI 20 E RKS 35 NNW COS 25 ENE RTN 35 WSW TCC 50 ESE GDP 40 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PNHDL...
THE REMNANTS OF T.S. MATTHEW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SWRN MS...IN THE
VICINITY OF HEZ...AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES NWD TOWARD SERN AR BY 12Z MONDAY.  40 KT SELY LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN AL
INTO AR...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NWD TO
THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM
LA TO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY AT SLIDELL LA VAD.
LOW-LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER DEFORMATION ZONE
EXTENDING FROM OK TO GA/NRN FL TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED LOW OVER TX/OK
AND MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...MAINLY WITHIN THE MOIST
AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM ERN LA TO FAR
SWRN AL.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DECREASE...
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.

...SRN AZ...
00Z SOUNDINGS AT FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ABOVE INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN NV SEWD INTO
SRN NM...AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN TX.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
VALUES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED V PROFILES
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS.

..PETERS.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.